Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Primetime Emmys Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: June 4, 2026): We are one week out from the official open of Emmy nomination voting, and the race is as tight as ever.

In drama, it is the three “Ps”: the medical juggernaut “The Pitt” vs. the sci-fi drama “Pluribus” vs. the political thriller “Paradise.” In comedy, it is “Hacks” to lose, with “Shrinking” and “Abbott Elementary” hot on its heels (and maybe “Widow’s Bay?”). In limited series, we are hunting for one surprise, with four slots seemingly spoken for: the anthology “Beef,” “DTF St. Louis,” “Love Story” and “Half Man.” Who lands the fifth?

Top of mind for strategists is which show, and more important which network, leads the nomination tally. For now the crown is up for grabs in a tight three-way race among last year’s leader HBO Max, Netflix and Apple TV, each armed with its share of juggernauts and potential nomination magnets.

Variety has posted its first ranked predictions for outstanding television movie, along with first looks at the cinematography, editing and music races, bringing the number of projected categories to 57, with roughly 50 still to come.

Nomination voting runs June 11-22, with nominations announced July 8. Final-round voting takes place Aug. 17-26 ahead of the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6. The Primetime Emmy Awards will air Sept. 14 on NBC.

Note: All official category placements in these predictions have yet to be confirmed.

Top 3 projected nomination leaders (series): TBA

Top 3 projected nomination leaders (networks): TBA

See all Primetime Emmy predictions


Variety Awards Circuit: Emmys

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

  • Drama Series

    The Diplomat” (Netflix)
    A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max)
    Paradise” (Hulu)
    The Pitt” (HBO Max)
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
    Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
    Stranger Things” (Netflix)
    Task” (HBO Max)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Comedy Series

    Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
    Jury Duty: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
    Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
    Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
    Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
    Rooster” (HBO Max)
    Shrinking” (Apple TV)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Limited or Anthology Series

    The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
    Beef” (Netflix) ***
    DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
    Half Man” (HBO Max)
    Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Outstanding Movie

    Deep Cover” (Prime Video)
    Mike and Nick & Nick and Alice” (Hulu)
    Miss You, Love You” (HBO Max)
    Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix) ***
    People We Meet on Vacation” (Netflix)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Lead Actor (Drama)

    Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
    Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
    Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
    Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
    Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Lead Actor (Comedy)

    Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
    Steve Carell, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
    Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
    Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
    Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) ***

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Lead Actor (Limited/Movie)

    Jamie Bell, “Half Man” (HBO Max) ***
    Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
    Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix)
    Paul Anthony Kelly, “Love Story: John F Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)
    Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Lead Actress (Drama)

    Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
    Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
    Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
    Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
    Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Lead Actress (Comedy)

    Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
    Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
    Keke Palmer, “The ‘Burbs” (Peacock)
    Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Lead Actress (Limited/Movie)

    Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
    Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
    Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
    Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
    Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women” (Apple TV)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actor (Drama)

    Patrick Ball, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
    Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
    Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
    James Marsden, “Paradise” (Hulu)
    Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max)
    Kurt Russell, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
    Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actor (Comedy)

    Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
    Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear” (FX)
    Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
    Stephen Root, “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
    Michael Urie, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
    Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actor (Limited/Movie)

    Jonathan Banks, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
    Jason Bateman, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
    Richard Gadd, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
    David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
    Charles Melton, “Beef” (Netflix)
    Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actress (Drama)

    Marisa Abela, “Industry” (HBO Max)
    Isa Briones, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
    Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
    Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
    Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
    Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu)
    Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actress (Comedy)

    Erika Alexander, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
    Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) ***
    Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    Meg Stalter, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    Jessica Williams, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actress (Limited/Movie)

    Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
    Grace Gummer, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
    Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
    Cailee Spaeny, “Beef” (Netflix)
    Naomi Watts, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
    Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef” (Netflix)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Guest Actor (Drama)

    Eric Dane, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
    Colman Domingo, “Euphoria” (HBO Max) ***
    Jeff Hiller, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
    Jeff Kober, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
    Nathan Lane, “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)
    Samba Schutte, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Guest Actress (Drama)

    Tal Anderson, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
    Elisabeth Moss, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
    Miriam Shor, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
    Sharon Stone, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
    Merritt Wever, “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)
    Shailene Woodley, “Paradise” (Hulu) ***

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Guest Actor (Comedy)

    Jon Bernthal, “The Bear” (FX)
    Jeff Daniels, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
    Peter Dinklage, “The Lowdown” (FX)
    Tony Goldwyn, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    Michael J. Fox, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
    Rob Reiner, “The Bear” (FX)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Guest Actress (Comedy)

    Candice Bergen, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
    Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Bear” (FX) ***
    Danielle Deadwyler, “The Bear” (FX)
    Marcia Gay Harden, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
    Kaitlin Olson, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Variety Series

    The Daily Show” (Comedy Central) ***
    Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) ***
    Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max) ***
    The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS) ***

    Emmy category page with rankings>>>

  • Competition Program

    The Amazing Race” (CBS)
    RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
    Survivor” (CBS) ***
    Top Chef” (Bravo)
    The Traitors” (Peacock)

  • Host for Reality/Competition Program

    RuPaul Charles, “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
    Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)
    Colin Jost, “Pop Culture Jeopardy” (Netflix)
    Kristen Kish, “Top Chef” (Bravo)
    Jeff Probst, “Survivor” (CBS) ***

  • Game Show

    Celebrity Family Feud” (Syndicated)
    Game Changer” (Dropout)
    Jeopardy” (Syndicated) ***
    The Price is Right” (Syndicated)
    Wheel of Fortune” (Syndicated)

  • Directing (Drama)

    Paradise” (Hulu) — Glenn Ficarra and John Requa, “Graceland”
    The Pitt” (HBO Max) — John Wells, “9:00 P.M.”
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Gordon Smith, “Grenade”
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Vince Gilligan, “We Is Us” ***
    Slow Horses” (Apple TV) — Saul Metzstein, “Scars”
    Stranger Things” (Netflix) — The Duffer Brothers, “Chapter Eight: The Rightside Up”
    Task” (HBO Max) — Jeremiah Zagar, “Crossings”

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  • Directing (Comedy)

    The Bear” (FX) — Christopher Storer, “Goodbye”
    The Chair Company” (HBO Max) — Andrew DeYoung, “Life goes by too f**king fast, it really does.”
    Hacks” (HBO Max) — Lucia Aniello, “Hacks” ***
    Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video) — Jake Szymanski, “Mergers & Acquisitions”
    Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) — Dearbhla Walsh, “Flamingoes”
    The Ms. Pat Show” (BET) — Mary Lou Belli, “Killin’ and Dyin’”
    Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV) — Hiro Murai, “Welcome to Widow’s Bay!”

  • Directing (Limited/Movie)

    Beef” (Netflix) — Lee Sung Jin, “Oh, the Comfort, the Inexpressible Comfort” ***
    Beef” (Netflix) — Jake Schreier, “It Will Stay This Way and You Will Obey”
    Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — Jason Bateman, “The Black Rabbits”
    Death by Lightning” (Netflix) — Matt Ross, “Series”
    DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) — Steven Conrad, “Series”
    Half Man” (HBO Max) — Alexandra Brodski, “Episode 2”

  • Writing (Drama)

    The Diplomat” (Netflix) — “Schrodinger’s Wife” by Debora Cahn
    Industry” (HBO Max) — “Both, And” by Mickey Down and Konrad Kay
    A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max) — “The Hedge Knight” by Ira Parker
    Paradise” (Hulu) — “Graceland” by Dan Fogelman and Eric Wen
    The Pitt” (HBO Max) — “9:00 P.M.” by R. Scott Gemmill
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) — “We Is Us” by Vince Gilligan ***
    Slow Horses” (Apple TV) — “Scars” by Will Smith

  • Writing (Comedy)

    Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — “Team Building” by Quinta Brunson
    The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC) — “Pilot” by Robert Carlock and Sam Means
    Hacks” (HBO Max) — “Hacks” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
    The Lowdown” (FX) — “Pilot” by Sterlin Harjo
    Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) — “Lock and Loaded” by Eva Anderson and David E. Kelley
    Rooster” (HBO Max) — “Release the Brown Fat” by Bill Lawrence and Matt Tarses
    Shrinking” (Apple TV) — “And That’s Our Time” by Bill Lawrence, Brett Goldstein and Neil Goldman ***

  • Writing (Limited/Movie)

    Beef” (Netflix) — “Oh, the Comfort, the Inexpressible Comfort” by Lee Sung Jin & Madeleine Pron
    Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — “The Cyclone” by Zach Baylin and Kate Susman
    DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) — Series by Steven Conrad ***
    Half Man” (HBO Max) — Series by Richard Gadd
    Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) — Series by Jack Thorne

  • Casting (Drama)

    The Diplomat” (Netflix)
    A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max)
    Paradise” (Hulu)
    The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
    Pluribus” (Apple TV)
    Slow Horses” (Apple TV)

  • Casting (Comedy)

    Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    Hacks” (HBO Max)
    Jury Duty: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
    The Lowdown” (FX)
    Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
    Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***

  • Casting (Limited/Movie)

    All Her Fault” (Peacock)
    Beef” (Netflix)
    Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) ***
    Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
    Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)

  • Structured Reality Program

    Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
    Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
    Love is Blind” (Netflix)
    Queer Eye” (Netflix) ***
    Shark Tank” (ABC)

  • Unstructured Reality Program

    Love is Blind” (Netflix)
    Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix) ***
    Neighbors” (HBO Max)
    Queer Eye” (Netflix)
    Welcome to Wrexham” (FX)

  • Animated Program

    Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
    King of the Hill” (Hulu)
    Long Story Short” (Netflix)
    Rick and Morty” (Adult Swim)
    The Simpsons” (Fox) ***

  • Documentary (Series)

    Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV) ***
    Rafa” (Netflix)
    Sean Combs: The Reckoning” (Netflix)
    Taylor Swift: The End of an Era” (Disney+)
    The Yogurt Shop Murders” (HBO Max)

  • Documentary (Special)

    John Candy: I Like Me” (Prime Video) ***
    Marty, Life is Short” (Netflix)
    Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man” (HBO Max)
    My Mom Jayne” (HBO Max)
    Ocean with David Attenborough” (National Geographic)

  • Hosted Nonfiction Series/Special

    The Dinosaurs” (Netflix)
    Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates Jr.” (PBS)
    My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman” (Netflix)
    The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy” (Apple TV) ***
    Tucci in Italy” (National Geographic)

  • Variety Special (Live)

    The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny” (Roc Nation) ***
    BTS The Comeback Live: Arirang” (Netflix)
    The Oscars” (ABC)
    The 68th Grammy Awards” (Paramount+)
    Skyscraper Live” (Netflix)

  • Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

    Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable” (Netflix)
    Kevin Hart: Acting My Age” (Netflix)
    Marc Maron: Panicked” (HBO Max)
    Nikki Glaser: Good Girl” (Hulu) ***
    2025 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony” (ABC)

  • Picture Editing (Drama)

    Euphoria” (HBO Max)
    Fallout” (Prime Video)
    A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max)
    The Pitt” (HBO Max)
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
    Stranger Things” (Netflix)

  • Picture Editing (Comedy)

    The Chair Company” (HBO Max)
    Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
    Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
    Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
    Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
    Shrinking” (Apple TV)
    Wonder Man” (Disney+)

  • Picture Editing (Limited/Movie)

    The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
    Beef” (Netflix)
    DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
    His and Hers” (Netflix)
    Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
    Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)

  • Picture Editing (Nonfiction)

    aka Charlie Sheen” (Netflix)
    The American Revolution” (PBS)
    John Candy: I Like Me” (Prime Video)
    Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV) ***
    My Mom Jayne” (HBO Max)
    Sean Combs: The Reckoning” (Netflix)

  • Picture Editing (Structured Reality/Competition)

    The Amazing Race” (CBS)
    Queer Eye
    RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
    Survivor” (CBS) ***
    The Traitors” (Peacock)

  • Picture Editing (Unstructured)

    Below Deck Down Under” (Bravo)
    Deadliest Catch” (Discovery)
    Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
    RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (MTV)
    Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) ***

  • Picture Editing (Variety Programming)

    Dave Chappell: The Unstoppable” (Netflix)
    Kevin Hart: Acting My Age” (Netflix)
    Nikki Glaser: Good Girl” (Hulu)
    Ricky Gervais: Mortality” (Netflix)
    Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (Disney+) ***

  • Cinematography (Limited/Movie)

    Beef” (Netflix) — Episode TBD
    Black Rabbit” (Netflix) — Episode TBD
    Chief of War” (Apple TV) — Matthew Chuang, “The Chief of War”
    Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) — Episode TBD ***
    Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix) — Episode TBD

  • Cinematography (Nonfiction)

    My Mom Jayne” (HBO Max)
    Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV) ***
    Ocean with David Attenborough” (National Geographic)
    #SKYKING” (Hulu)
    The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)

  • Cinematography (Reality)

    The Amazing Race” (CBS)
    Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
    Survivor” (CBS)
    The Traitors” (Peacock) ***
    Welcome to Wrexham” (FX)

  • Cinematography (Series, Half-Hour)

    The Bear” (FX) — Episode TBD
    The Chair Company” (HBO Max) — Episode TBD ***
    Hacks” (HBO Max) — Episode TBD
    Murderbot” (Apple TV) — Tobias Datum, “The Perimeter”
    Rooster” (HBO Max) — Episode TBD
    Shrinking” (Apple TV) — John Brawley, “I Will be Grape”

  • Cinematography (Series, One-Hour)

    Euphoria” (HBO Max) — Episode TBD
    A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max) — Episode TBD ***
    Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV) — Tari Segal, “Flamingoes”
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Marshall Adams, “We Is Us”
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Paul Donachie, “The Gap”
    Stranger Things” (Netflix) — Episode TBD

  • Character Voice-Over Performance

    Julie Andrews, “Bridgerton” (Netflix)
    Hank Azaria, “The Simpsons” (Fox)
    Josh Brolin, “The American Revolution” (PBS)
    Jeff Goldblum, “Being Alive: Henry David Thoreau” (PBS)
    Mike Judge, “King of the Hill” (Hulu)
    Seth MacFarlane, “Family Guy” (Fox)

  • Main Title Theme Music

    The Beast in Me” (Netflix) — Sean Callery
    The Boroughs” (Netflix) — John Paesano
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Dave Porter
    Rooster” (HBO Max) — Andrew Watt and Michael Stipe ***
    Spider-Noir” (Prime Video) — Sebastian Kole, Warren Oak Felder and Jayme Silverstein

  • Music Composition (Series)

    Chief of War” (Apple TV) — Hans Zimmer and James Everingham
    A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max) — Dan Romer ***
    Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — Siddhartha Khosla
    Pluribus” (Apple TV) — Dave Porter
    Slow Horses” (Apple TV) — Daniel Pemberton and Toydrum
    Stranger Things” (Netflix) — Michael Stein and Kyle Dixon

  • Music Composition (Limited/Movie/Special)

    Beef” (Netflix) — Finneas O’Connell
    Death by Lightning” (Netflix) — Ramin Djawadi
    Lord of the Flies” (Netflix) — Cristobal Tapia De Veer
    Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX) — Bryce Dessner ***
    Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen” (Netflix) — Colin Stetson

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