{"id":3153,"date":"2026-06-28T16:38:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T16:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationobserver.com\/?p=3153"},"modified":"2026-06-28T16:38:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T16:38:10","slug":"oscar-contenders-from-first-half-of-2026-the-invite-project-hail-mary-taylor-swift-and-yes-even-michael","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationobserver.com\/?p=3153","title":{"rendered":"Oscar Contenders From First Half of 2026: \u2018The Invite,\u2019 \u2018Project Hail Mary,\u2019 Taylor Swift and Yes, Even \u2018Michael\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tThe Oscar race is never won in June, but some would like it to be.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe first six months of 2026 have given us a moonwalking box office juggernaut that the critical class can\u2019t stand and, more recently, an A24 ensemble dramedy that turns one tense evening into a poignant confessional. Lionsgate\u2019s billion-dollar \u201cMichael\u201d and Olivia Wilde\u2019s \u201cThe Invite\u201d for A24 sit at opposite ends of the awards conversation. Together, they frame the question that will define the next six months until nominations are announced \u2014 and the three months after that until the winners are crowned: How much room does today\u2019s Academy have for movies people actually went to see?<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationobserver.com\/?p=3151\">Fired \u2018Love Island USA\u2019 Star Alannah Keyser Apologizes for Using the N-Word in Resurfaced Video: \u2018I Do Not Support Racism\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n\tWith Cannes, Sundance, SXSW and the first wave of summer releases now in the rearview, Hollywood has begun revealing the films, performances and crafts that could define the upcoming awards season. Some contenders have already exceeded expectations. Others are still awaiting their festival premieres or late-year releases before they can truly enter the conversation.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAlongside this look at the year\u2019s first half comes the debut of <em>Variety\u2019s <\/em>first official Oscar charts in the best picture category. Those will factor in what we\u2019ve already seen, along with highly anticipated films expected to premiere on the fall festival circuit and a few potential surprises waiting in the wings. The most important thing to remember, however, is that it\u2019s still early. These predictions will change \u2014 probably a lot \u2014 between now and nomination morning. The charts won\u2019t be updated again until after Venice and Telluride, while the acting categories will make their season debut somewhere in between.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>[Editor\u2019s Note: To discuss the most significant number of movies, a film is only highlighted in one category, even though it could be in contention in multiple. Not all listed crew members are official. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, along with its various committees, ultimately determines the final credited artisans. For a film to appear on the list below, it must have had a U.S. release date between Jan. 1 and June 30.]<\/em><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h5>\n\t\tSee all Academy Awards predictions\t<\/h5>\n<p>\n<span><br \/>Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars<\/p>\n<p> <\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Documentary Feature: \u2018Ask E. Jean\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Abramorama <br \/>Artisans: Ivy Meeropol (director, producer), Laura Bickford and Annabelle Dunne (producers)<\/p>\n<p>\n\tSitting at a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and freshly relevant thanks to renewed headlines around President Donald Trump, Ivy Meeropol\u2019s documentary, which premiered at last year\u2019s Telluride Film Festival, tracks the cultural shift in how we treat women who accuse powerful men. It is a portrait of a woman who decided it is always the right time to speak truth to power.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Original Song: \u2018Toy Story 5\u2019 (\u2018I Knew It, I Knew You\u2019)<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Pixar <br \/>Artisans: Jack Antonoff and Taylor Swift<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIt\u2019s only June, but discounting Taylor Swift in this category would be a mistake. \u201cToy Story\u201d is the only franchise with a perfect best original song record, nominated for all four prior installments in 1995, 1999, 2010 and 2019, and a Swift-Antonoff chart-topper extends that streak with the genre\u2019s biggest current star attached. A nomination would be Swift\u2019s first. A win would leave her one Tony shy of competitive EGOT status, alongside the likes of Adele, Cher, Eminem and Lady Gaga, who are also waiting on Broadway. It will also help that the movie is undoubtedly the one to beat going into the fall.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Original Score: \u2018Disclosure Day\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Universal Pictures <br \/>Artisan: John Williams<\/p>\n<p>\n\tGuys, it\u2019s 54-time Oscar nominee John Williams. End of sentence.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Invite\u201d and \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Visual Effects: \u2018Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Walt Disney Pictures <br \/>Artisans: Jeff Capogreco, Trent Claus, Mark Dubeau, Kabir Verma (visual effects supervisors)<\/p>\n<p>\n\tA \u201cStar Wars\u201d movie has never missed a best visual effects nomination. Never. Even with a softer box office, it would be foolish to count this one out, at least this early in the game.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cDisclosure Day\u201d and \u201cThe Sheep Detectives\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Sound: \u2018Tuner\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Black Bear <br \/>Artisan: Johnnie Burn<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe great British sound designer can do it all. An Oscar winner for \u201cThe Zone of Interest,\u201d Johnnie Burn has made the notion of sound a central character across many of his outings such as \u201cUnder the Skin,\u201d \u201cThe Lobster\u201d and last year\u2019s one-two punch of \u201cBugonia\u201d and \u201cHamnet.\u201d In Daniel Roher\u2019s crowd-pleasing drama \u201cTuner,\u201d which doubles as proof that Leo Woodall is a star, he does it again, which in ways plays like a distant cousin to another Oscar winner for sound, \u201cSound of Metal\u201d (2020).<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Invite\u201d and \u201cMichael\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Makeup and Hairstyling: \u201828 Years Later: The Bone Temple\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Sony Pictures <br \/>Artisans: Flora Moody (hair designer\/makeup artist), David Darby (HOD sculptor\/lead concept designer)<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cThe Substance\u201d aside, it is criminal that this category hasn\u2019t become an annual home for the horror genre. Nia DaCosta\u2019s post-apocalyptic sequel, anchored by a ferocious Ralph Fiennes, brings the grit and grime to life through its zombies and satanic cults.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cDisclosure Day\u201d and \u201cMichael\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Film Editing: \u2018Send Help\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: 20th Century Studios <br \/>Artisan: Bob Murawski<\/p>\n<p>\n\tYou can file this one under \u201ca hope-diction,\u201d but Sam Raimi\u2019s survival horror thriller, featuring an awards-caliber Rachel McAdams, is one of the most purely fun movies of the year, January 30 dumping ground be damned. Much of the credit goes to Bob Murawski, the Oscar winner for \u201cThe Hurt Locker,\u201d whose rhythmic cutting keeps the audience on at the edge of their seats.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Invite\u201d and \u201cMichael\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Costume Design: \u2018The Devil Wears Prada 2\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: 20th Century Studios <br \/>Artisan: Molly Rogers<\/p>\n<p>\n\tA massive box-office hit, the long-awaited sequel will push in categories like original song and maybe for its once-nominated star, Meryl Streep. In a movie built on fashion, costume designer Molly Rogers, inheriting the reins from previous nominee Patricia Field, is sure to be in the discussion by year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cI Love Boosters\u201d and \u201cThe Sheep Detectives\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Cinematography: \u2018Wuthering Heights\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Warner Bros. <br \/>Artisan: Linus Sandgren<\/p>\n<p>\n\tOscar winner Linus Sandgren (\u201cLa La Land\u201d) reunites with Emerald Fennell after \u201cSaltburn\u201d for her take on the Bront\u00eb classic, giving the adaptation a lush, painterly palette and gorgeously composed frames. The massive hurdle will be if the Academy will keep it in mind after a February release.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Invite\u201d and \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Production Design: \u2018Backrooms\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: A24 <br \/>Artisans: Danny Vermette (production designer) and Trevor Johnston (set decorator)<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAfter his YouTube series went viral, Kane Parsons turns years of world-building into a feature-length psychological horror, with Chiwetel Ejiofor among the stars. The eerie ambiance of those empty expanses and endless hallways could be one of the most distinctive design feats the Oscars have ever entertained. I wonder if they would be so cool.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Invite\u201d and \u201cWuthering Heights\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Animated Feature: \u2018Hoppers\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Pixar <br \/>Artisans: Daniel Chong (director), Nicole Paradis Grindle (producer)<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationobserver.com\/?p=3150\">Box Office: \u2018Supergirl\u2019 Stumbles With $38 Million Debut, \u2018Toy Story 5\u2019 Remains No. 1 With $70 Million<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n\tObviously, the new chatter is surrounding \u201cToy Story 5,\u201d but remember, Pixar\u2019s comeback year opened with this original adventure featuring some fun-loving beavers. The animated gem delights with big laughs and a hopeful heart, featuring smart, wacky and morally complex themes that Disney doesn\u2019t really do elsewhere. We need more movies like this one. <\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Super Mario Galaxy Movie\u201d and \u201cToy Story 5\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Casting: \u2018Leviticus\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Neon <br \/>Casting Director: Nikki Barrett<\/p>\n<p>\n\tLook at Nikki Barrett\u2019s filmography: \u201cBring Her Back,\u201d \u201cThe Babadook\u201d and \u201cMad Max: Fury Road.\u201d You see a casting director with an eye for the distinct, exactly right faces that a director\u2019s world demands. For \u201cLeviticus,\u201d Adrian Chiarella\u2019s Sundance sensation, she finds her perfect leads in Joe Bird and Stacy Clausen, teenagers in a fanatic religious community who summon an entity to purge their homosexual desires. She nails it, and the film is better for it.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cI Love Boosters\u201d and \u201cObsession\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Adapted Screenplay: \u2018Is God Is\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Amazon MGM Studios <br \/>Writer: Aleshea Harris (based on the play by Harris)<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAleshea Harris adapts her acclaimed play into a directorial debut brimming with storytelling ingenuity and stylistic verve. The revenge tale follows two sisters chasing justice after their father left them and their mother for dead, and Harris stages it with the confidence of a filmmaker who has been ready for years.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Invite\u201d (Rashida Jones and Will McCormack) and \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d (Drew Goddard)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Original Screenplay: \u2018I Love Boosters\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Neon <br \/>Writer: Boots Riley<\/p>\n<p>\n\tWith gorgeous, colorful costumes and sets, all set against one of the year\u2019s best soundtracks, \u201cSorry to Bother You\u201d director Boots Riley gives us his take on the fashion industry, with a stellar cast that includes Keke Palmer, Taylour Paige and Demi Moore. Who would have thought this idiosyncratic story would be so much fun? The writers can rally behind this one.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cObsession\u201d (Curry Barker) and \u201cI Swear\u201d (Kirk Jones)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Supporting Actress: Pen\u00e9lope Cruz (\u2018The Invite\u2019)<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: A24 <br \/>Role: Pi\u00f1a<\/p>\n<p>\n\tWith impeccable chemistry with her all equally brilliant co-stars Seth Rogen, Edward Norton and Olivia Wilde, who also directs, Pen\u00e9lope Cruz makes magic on screen, which becomes another example for why she\u2019s one of our best working today. As a sex therapist who is part of a wild evening in a San Francisco apartment, she operates at a level she has not reached since \u201cParallel Mothers.\u201d It\u2019s part of a huge year for the \u201cVicky Cristina Barcelona\u201d winner, who also has the Cannes prizewinner \u201cLa Bola Negra\u201d coming to Netflix and Florian Zeller\u2019s \u201cBunker\u201d opposite husband Javier Bardem.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: Sandra H\u00fcller (\u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d) and Keke Palmer (\u201cI Love Boosters\u201d)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Supporting Actor: Hugh Jackman (\u2018The Sheep Detectives\u2019)<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Amazon MGM Studios <br \/>Role: George Hardy<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKyle Balda\u2019s comedy, adapted from the novel \u201cThree Bags Full,\u201d assembles an all-star voice cast that includes Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Bryan Cranston. The connective thread is Oscar nominee Hugh Jackman (\u201cLes Mis\u00e9rables\u201d) as shepherd George Hardy. This role could echo James Cromwell\u2019s path from \u201cBabe\u201d to a 1995 supporting nomination. With a respectable $126 million at the box office and Jackman\u2019s effortless likability, never a quality to take for granted, this one could strike a chord with a few voters.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: James Ortiz (\u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d) and Edward Norton (\u201cThe Invite\u201d)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Actress: Inde Navarrette (\u2018Obsession\u2019)<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Focus Features <br \/>Role: Nikki Freeman<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIf \u201cGet Out\u201d had Daniel Kaluuya, \u201cObsession\u201d has Inde Navarrette. The horror breakout lives and dies by its star as the co-worker and hypnotized love interest, with Navarrette delivering a physical and fearless turn. Destined to go down as one of the year\u2019s most notable breakouts, Navarrette could become a critics\u2019 darling, and with the massive box office still accumulating, Focus Features will be giving her a much-deserved push.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tOther considerations: Emily Blunt (\u201cDisclosure Day\u201d) and Olivia Wilde (\u201cThe Invite\u201d)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Actor: Robert Aramayo (\u2018I Swear\u2019)<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Sony Pictures Classics <br \/>Role: John Davidson<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe BAFTA controversy put \u201cI Swear\u201d in the headlines (not the way the indie studio had intended), and it managed to bury the real story \u2014 Robert Aramayo very much deserved his BAFTA win. As a man living with Tourette syndrome, the 33-year-old English actor delivers an invigorating, deeply human turn that managed to top Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan for the leading actor prize on merit. While it won\u2019t be eligible for BAFTA, its U.S. release this year puts it in contention for the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Oscars. If enough voters watch, they can see why the performance was awarded.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: Ryan Gosling (\u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d) and Seth Rogen (\u201cThe Invite\u201d)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Director: Phil Lord and Chris Miller (\u2018Project Hail Mary\u2019)<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Amazon MGM Studios<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe \u201cLego Movie\u201d and \u201c21 Jump Street\u201d duo make their live-action sci-fi leap with this adaptation of Andy Weir\u2019s novel, and it is their most ambitious swing. Oscar history has not been kind to directing partnerships. Only four teams have ever been nominated together: Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for \u201cWest Side Story\u201d (1961, winners); Warren Beatty and Buck Henry for \u201cHeaven Can Wait\u201d (1978); Joel and Ethan Coen for \u201cNo Country for Old Men\u201d (2007, winners) and again for \u201cTrue Grit\u201d (2010); and Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for \u201cEverything Everywhere All at Once\u201d (2022, winners). Lord and Miller have a real shot at making the list if the studio can craft the right narrative for the duo.<\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: Curry Barker (\u201cObsession\u201d) and Olivia Wilde (\u201cThe Invite\u201d)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<article>\n<h2>Best Picture: \u2018Michael\u2019<\/h2>\n<p><!-- do not apply CSS styles to this element! --><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>\n\tDistributor: Lionsgate <br \/>Producers: Graham King, John Branca, John McClain<\/p>\n<p>\n\tSocial media isn\u2019t ready to accept this premise.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tEvery season has an unofficial Oscar villain. Look back at \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez,\u201d \u201cWicked,\u201d \u201cGreen Book,\u201d and the list goes on. This year, that villain has a billion dollars and a moonwalk.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tHere\u2019s the thing: \u201cMichael\u201d doesn\u2019t need critics. All it needs is the Academy\u2019s populist wing, the same bloc that widened best picture to 10 slots precisely to make room for movies the public embraced. Jaafar Jackson\u2019s dynamic transformation into the King of Pop will be a talking point, along with Colman Domingo, who gives the film its antagonistic gravity. Add in the craft branches \u2014 especially for editing, makeup and hairstyling and sound \u2014 and you hand voters plenty of reasons to check the box. <\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationobserver.com\/?p=3149\">Prime Video Reveals Young Stars of German-Language Original Series \u2018Superior,\u2019 Set in the World of Luxury Hotels (EXCLUSIVE)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Other considerations: \u201cThe Invite\u201d and \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Variety breaks down the top Oscar contenders from the first half of 2026, from &#8220;The Invite&#8221; and &#8220;Project Hail Mary&#8221; to Taylor Swift and &#8220;Michael.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3152,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,107,1123,2597],"class_list":["post-3153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-film","tag-michael","tag-oscars","tag-taylor-swift-2","tag-the-invite"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - 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