{"id":433,"date":"2026-05-21T18:37:51","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T18:37:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationobserver.com\/?p=433"},"modified":"2026-05-21T18:37:51","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T18:37:51","slug":"tony-awards-predictions-first-projections-with-death-of-a-salesman-the-lost-boys-and-records-on-the-line-for-squibb-lithgow-and-apple","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationobserver.com\/?p=433","title":{"rendered":"Tony Awards Predictions: First Projections With \u2018Death of a Salesman,\u2019 \u2018The Lost Boys\u2019 and Records on the Line for Squibb, Lithgow and Apple"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nVariety\u00a0<\/em>Awards Circuit\u00a0section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,\u00a0Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by\u00a0Variety\u00a0<\/em>chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.<\/p>\n

Read more \u2018Adults\u2019 Breakout Amita Rao to Star in Horror-Comedy \u2018See Bot Run\u2019 (EXCLUSIVE)<\/a><\/p>\n

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\nExplore Awards Circuit Predictions Pages<\/strong>
Oscars\u00a0|\u00a0Emmys\u00a0| Grammys |\u00a0Tonys <\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\nPrimetime Tony Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: May 21, 2026):<\/strong> This year\u2019s Tony Awards race feels more wide open than it has in seasons, and yet, it\u2019s also stacked with the kind of potential record-breaking storylines that make Broadway\u2019s biggest night worth watching.<\/p>\n

\n\tWhen nominations for the 79th annual ceremony were unveiled on May 5, two new musicals dominated the field. The genre-spoofing comedy \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d and the rock-tinged vampire musical \u201cThe Lost Boys\u201d tied at the top with 12 nominations each, followed closely by Lincoln Center Theater\u2019s revival of \u201cRagtime\u201d with 11. On the play side, the revival of Arthur Miller\u2019s \u201cDeath of a Salesman\u201d led with nine, tying the musical revivals \u201cCats: The Jellicle Ball\u201d and \u201cRichard O\u2019Brien\u2019s The Rocky Horror Show.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tAs always, awards watchers are eyeing potential future EGOT winners, or rather, artists on their way to the potential milestone. Several nominees could be put at the halfway point of that illustrious journey. Emmy winners in striking distance of a Tony include Richard Thomas (featured actor in a play, \u201cThe Balusters\u201d), Ana Gasteyer (featured actress in a musical, \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d), David Korins (scenic design, \u201cDog Day Afternoon\u201d) and Cinco Paul (triple nominee for \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d). Grammy winners hoping to add Tony gold include three-time Tony nominee Shoshana Bean, the frontrunner for \u201cThe Lost Boys,\u201d and Caroline Shaw for the original score for \u201cDeath of a Salesman.\u201d According to Broadway News, alongside Shaw, every nominee in the best book and original score categories is making their Broadway writing debuts, a first in modern Tony history.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe most intriguing corporate storyline of the night belongs to Apple. As Instagram awards enthusiast Freddy Mancilla (@freddyindc) noted, a Tony win for \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d would complete what trackers unofficially call a \u201cstudio EGOT,\u201d giving the company credits on winners at all four major ceremonies. Apple already has Emmys for comedies \u201cTed Lasso\u201d and \u201cThe Studio,\u201d the Oscar for best picture for \u201cCODA\u201d and a Grammy via Chris Stapleton\u2019s contribution to the \u201cF1\u201d soundtrack. A Tony win would place it alongside Warner Bros. and Universal Pictures. Disney also effectively achieved the feat through \u201cThe Lion King\u201d alone.<\/p>\n

\n\tBut a possibly bad Tonys night could bring a not-so-favorable record for the streamer. If \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d goes home empty-handed despite its 12 noms, it would tie \u201cThe Scottsboro Boys,\u201d \u201cMean Girls\u201d and \u201cSlave Play\u201d for the most losses by a single production in Tony history. Given its precursor wins at the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle awards, that outcome could prove unlikely, but the Tonys can deliver unpredictable (and surprising) results.<\/p>\n

\n\tMoreover, Universal Television has a notable presence throughout this Tony season. The studio\u2019s associated talent is heavily represented in several marquee acting races, including Daniel Radcliffe (\u201cThe Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins\u201d), nominated for lead actor in a play for \u201cEvery Brilliant Thing,\u201d and Carrie Coon (\u201cThe Gilded Age\u201d), whose performance in \u201cBug\u201d earned her a lead actress nomination before the production closed in March. Meanwhile, \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d adapted from the Apple TV and Universal Television series, is executive produced by \u201cSaturday Night Live\u201d creator Lorne Michaels, the most Emmy-awarded individual in history.<\/p>\n

\n\tJohn Lithgow, nominated for lead actor in a play for his turn as Roald Dahl in Nicholas Hytner\u2019s \u201cGiant,\u201d is within reach of a rare achievement. Having already won featured actor in a play for \u201cThe Changing Room\u201d and lead actor in a musical for \u201cSweet Smell of Success,\u201d a victory would make him one of a small group to win in three separate acting categories (in which he is eligible). However, his fellow nominee, Nathan Lane for \u201cDeath of a Salesman,\u201d could pull off the same feat. Lane has won lead actor in a musical twice for \u201cA Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum\u201d and \u201cThe Producers,\u201d plus featured actor in a play for \u201cAngels in America.\u201d Only one of them can join the three-category club on Tonys night. Which one will it be? <\/p>\n

\n\tAudra McDonald remains the only performer of any gender to win in all four eligible acting categories.<\/p>\n

\n\tDanny Burstein already broke a record with his ninth Tony nod, for \u201cMarjorie Prime,\u201d giving him the all-time mark for most Tony nominations by a male performer (surpassing Jason Robards). Interestingly, this is also a record Audra McDonald holds, with the all-time overall acting record at 11. Burstein\u2019s previous eight noms have produced only a single win for featured actor in a musical, in 2020 for \u201cMoulin Rouge!\u201d. A beloved actor in the community, as a Tony voter tells Variety<\/em>, saying, \u201cHis win during COVID has this sort of asterisk around it because everything was shut down. This is an opportunity to give him a proper win, and he deserves it.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tOf all the acting races, Burstein\u2019s category is the hardest to read, with four viable contenders in the mix. They include theater enthusiasts\u2019 heavily favored Alden Ehrenreich for \u201cBecky Shaw,\u201d the formidable Christopher Abbott for \u201cDeath of a Salesman,\u201d and a true dark-horse spoiler in Richard Thomas for \u201cThe Balusters,\u201d whose potential victory could serve as a way to honor the production as a whole.<\/p>\n

\n\tBurstein\u2019s co-star June Squibb also broke a record of her own. At 96, she is the oldest acting nominee in Tony history, surpassing Lois Smith, who was 89 when nominated for \u201cThe Inheritance\u201d in 2020. After turning 90, she went on to win that season, becoming the oldest winner ever. Coincidentally, Smith originated the title role of \u201cMarjorie Prime\u201d off-Broadway in 2015 before reprising it in the 2017 film. Smith. Can Squibb smash one more record of Smith\u2019s? Might be difficult considering the reviews and acclaim of her fellow nominee Laurie Metcalf from \u201cDeath of a Salesman,\u201d who is likely to be part of a big night for the Scott Rudin-produced revival.<\/p>\n

\n\tThree Broadway creatives pulled off rare three-category recognition this season: Cinco Paul for \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d (book, score and producer), Marla Mindelle for \u201cTitan\u00edque\u201d (book, lead actress and producer) and Gabriel Mann for \u201cThe Lost Boys\u201d (score, orchestrations and producer). Mindelle\u2019s combination mirrors what Cole Escola accomplished last season for the play \u201cOh, Mary!\u201d and marks the first instance of a woman earning recognition across all three disciplines on the same production. <\/p>\n

\n\tIf \u201cSchmigadoon!\u201d also wins best musical, Paul would join an elite group of artists who single-handedly authored a best musical winner, which includes: Jonathan Larson (\u201cRent\u201d), Mel Brooks (\u201cThe Producers\u201d), Lin-Manuel Miranda (\u201cHamilton\u201d) and Michael R. Jackson (\u201cA Strange Loop\u201d).<\/p>\n

\n\tLegendary performer Andr\u00e9 De Shields, nominated for featured actor in a musical for \u201cCats: The Jellicle Ball,\u201d is another potential victor. After winning for \u201cHadestown\u201d at 73, a second Tony at 80 would further cement his late-career renaissance. De Shields\u2019 closest competitors are Ben Levi Ross, fresh off his Drama Desk win for \u201cRagtime,\u201d and 26-year-old breakout Ali Louis Bourzgui from \u201cThe Lost Boys,\u201d marking his second originated role on Broadway following 2024\u2019s \u201cThe Who\u2019s Tommy,\u201d where he played the titular role. <\/p>\n

\n\tThe most prolific nominee this season is from producer Willette Klausner, who is attached to nine individual productions: \u201cGiant\u201d and \u201cLiberation\u201d (best play); \u201cThe Lost Boys,\u201d \u201cSchmigadoon!,\u201d \u201cTitan\u00edque,\u201d \u201cTwo Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)\u201d (best musical); \u201cOedipus\u201d (play revival); and \u201cCats: The Jellicle Ball\u201d and \u201cRagtime\u201d (musical revival).<\/p>\n

\n\tKlausner has already produced top-prize winners in \u201cHadestown,\u201d \u201cStereophonic,\u201d \u201cSunset Blvd.\u201d and \u201cMaybe Happy Ending,\u201d and this season has contenders across all four marquee races. The industry\u2019s perennial powerhouse remains the John Gore Organization, however, which continues to hold producer credits on a substantial portion of Broadway\u2019s nominated productions each season.<\/p>\n

\n\tOther prolific multi-nominated producers this year include Pam Hurst-Della Pietra and James L. Nederlander, each attached to five productions, along with Stephen Della Pietra, Tom Tuft and the Roundabout Theatre Company leadership team. <\/p>\n

\n\tThe celebrity-heavy rosters behind \u201cThe Lost Boys\u201d (Neil Patrick Harris, Slash, Kiefer Sutherland, Patrick Wilson, Lauren Shuler Donner, Stephen and Ayesha Curry) and \u201cTitan\u00edque\u201d (JC Chasez, Joey Fatone, Bowen Yang, Matt Rogers, Deborah Cox) each add a layer of pop-culture and Hollywood wattage.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd just to point to a couple of Tony records that could be broken with a swing of a night. The most Tonys ever received by a play was seven, for \u201cThe Coast of Utopia\u201d (2007). These early projections have \u201cDeath of a Salesman\u201d with five wins. If it can pick up a win for Christopher Abbott in featured actor and director for Joe Mantello, that could tie the record. To surpass it, it would need to win everything predicted, and an extra tack-on for a category such as scenic design. Could be difficult, albeit not impossible.<\/p>\n

\n\tIn terms of acting records, only one show has won all four of the acting awards in a single year \u2014 1950\u2019s \u201cSouth Pacific.\u201d The only production this year with the capacity to do that would be \u201cRagtime,\u201d which very well could win three with Henry, Levy and Ross, who all won Drama Desk prizes. Nichelle Lewis would need to surpass the overdue Shoshana Bean, a difficult hurdle to overcome.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe critically acclaimed \u201cLiberation\u201d is favored to take home the best play statue. If it wins, it will join a list of 18 plays that have won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama and the Tony Award in the same year. They include: \u201cDeath of a Salesman\u201d by Arthur Miller (1949), \u201cThe Teahouse of the August Moon\u201d by John Patrick (1954), \u201cThe Diary of Anne Frank\u201d by Frances Goodrich and Albert Hackett (1956), \u201cLong Day\u2019s Journey Into Night\u201d by Eugene O\u2019Neill (1957), \u201cJ.B.\u201d by Archibald MacLeish (1959), \u201cThe Subject Was Roses\u201d by Frank D. Gilroy (1965), \u201cThe Great White Hope\u201d by Howard Sackler (1969), \u201cThat Championship Season\u201d by Jason Miller (1973), \u201cThe Shadow Box\u201d by Michael Cristofer (1977), \u201cFences\u201d by August Wilson (1987), \u201cThe Heidi Chronicles\u201d by Wendy Wasserstein (1989), \u201cLost in Yonkers\u201d by Neil Simon (1991), \u201cAngels in America: Millennium Approaches\u201d by Tony Kushner (1993), \u201cProof\u201d by David Auburn (2001), \u201cI Am My Own Wife\u201d by Doug Wright (2004), \u201cDoubt\u201d by John Patrick Shanley (2005), \u201cAugust: Osage County\u201d by Tracy Letts (2008) and \u201cPurpose\u201d by Branden Jacobs-Jenkins (2025).<\/p>\n

\n\tFinal Tony voting concludes Friday, June 5, at noon ET. The 79th annual Tony Awards will air live coast-to-coast Sunday, June 7, on CBS and stream on Paramount+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET, with Pink hosting from Radio City Music Hall.<\/p>\n

\nTop projected winners (productions)<\/strong>: \u201cArthur Miller\u2019s Death of a Salesman\u201d (5); \u201cCats: The Jellicle Ball,\u201d \u201cThe Lost Boys\u201d and \u201cTwo Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)\u201d (4); \u201cRagtime\u201d (3); \u201cLiberation\u201d (2)<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tSee all Tony Awards predictions\t<\/h5>\n

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Variety Awards Circuit: Tonys<\/p>\n

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\n***<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/strong> = PREDICTED WINNER<\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/em>
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)<\/i><\/p>\n

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