Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2027 Academy Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: June 28, 2026): We’ve officially crossed into the second half of 2026.
The box office is roaring back, audiences are returning to theaters, and the fall festivals are beginning to stir early speculation about what could premiere at each, which will launch dozens of hopeful Oscar campaigns.
The first half of the year delivered viable Oscar hopefuls across several races, including Amazon MGM Studios’ “Project Hail Mary,” Lionsgate’s “Michael,” A24’s “The Invite” and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5.” Now we begin to look ahead, sifting through the rumor mill to separate what we’re hearing is “great” from what remains “unknown.”
One film that isn’t expected to surface at any festival is Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Three,” the third and final installment of the Warner Bros. saga. With a December release locked in, going head-to-head with “Avengers: Doomsday” on the same date, there’s no reason to rush it out, especially with early word as strong as it is. Is this a “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” situation, where the Academy waits until the final chapter to fully embrace a franchise? One thing is certain: We can’t fathom an outcome in which Villeneuve goes un-nominated for best director after everything he’s built with these films.
There’s massive early buzz around Martin McDonagh’s anticipated “Wild Horse Nine” and the performances of John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell and Mariana di Girolamo. After going home empty-handed with “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Searchlight Pictures will be steering the ship to make sure history doesn’t repeat itself.
The Cannes Film Festival surfaced a few contenders worth tracking, most notably Palme d’Or winner “Fjord” from Cristian Mungiu and the tied best director winners, “Fatherland” from Pawel Pawlikowski and “La Bola Negra” from the duo of Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo. Neon, Mubi and Netflix will ensure they capitalize on that momentum with more stops on the festival circuit.
There’s been plenty of positive early word about Jesse Eisenberg’s next directorial feature, “The Debut,” described by one industry insider as “his best film yet” and, more notably, “Julianne Moore’s best performance of her career.” That’s high praise.
And there’s plenty we still don’t know.
Christopher Nolan is following his best picture winner, “Oppenheimer,” by turning to Homer, with “The Odyssey” opening in a few weeks. Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning” impressed many with its trailer, and we’re told to keep a close eye on Jeremy Strong and, from what I’m also hearing, Bill Burr. A career retrospective trailer teased Tom Cruise’s turn in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s “Digger,” and that best actor campaign will be front and center all season.
This looks to be a stellar year for animation. With “Hoppers” and “Toy Story 5” already delivering, insiders say there’s something special about Brad Bird’s “Ray Gunn” at Netflix and Travis Knight’s “Wildwood” at Laika.
The prediction list below is far from complete, and it will change dozens of times before the season ends. The first ranked charts for the best picture category are now live. They won’t be updated again until after the Venice and Telluride film festivals wrap, following Labor Day weekend.
Until then, let’s all sit with the feeling many of us have had for a while now: The movies are back, baby.
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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
“The Debut” (A24)
Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone, Dave McCary, Ali Herting
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Tom Cruise, Mary Parent
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Cale Boyter, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Fjord” (Neon)
Pascal Caucheteux, Dyveke Bjørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berensten Ottmar, Marco Perego, Tudor Reu
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Jorge Pezzi
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
Graham King, John Branca, John McClain
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Amy Pascal, Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Rachel O’Connor
“The Social Reckoning” (Sony Pictures)
Stuart M. Besser, Todd Black, Peter Rice, Aaron Sorkin
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh, Anie OverlandOscar category page with rankings>>>
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Directing
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Debut” (A24)
Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Cristian Mingiu, “Fjord” (Neon)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) *** -
Actor
Tom Cruise, “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Gosling, “Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Sebastian Stan, “Fjord” (Neon)
John Turturro, “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” (Sony Pictures Classics) -
Actress
Mikey Madison, “The Social Reckoning” (Sony Pictures)
Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24) ***
Inde Navarette, “Obsession” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve, “Fjord” (Neon)
Léa Seydoux, “Gentle Monster” (Netflix) -
Supporting Actor
Colman Domingo, “Michael” (Lionsgate)
Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24)
Tom Hiddleston, “Tenzing” (Apple Original Films)
Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jeremy Strong, “The Social Reckoning” (Sony Pictures) *** -
Supporting Actress
Gemma Chan, “Josephine” (Sumerian Pictures)
Penélope Cruz, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix) ***
Mariana di Girolamo, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Sandra Hüller, “Digger” (Warner Bros.) -
Original Screenplay
“The Debut” (A24)
Jesse Eisenberg
“Fjord” (Neon)
Cristian Mungiu
“Josephine” (Sumerian Pictures)
Beth de Araújo
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Robert Eggers and Sjón
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Martin McDonagh -
Adapted Screenplay
“Clarissa” (Neon)
Chuko Esiri
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo and Alberto Conejero
“The Invite” (A24)
Rashida Jones and Will McCormack
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Chris Butler -
Casting
“Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films) ***
Adam Caldwell, Bernard Telsey
“Clarissa” (Neon)
Nina Gold
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
Francine Maisler
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Eva Leira and Yolanda Serrano
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Sarah Finn -
Animated Feature
“Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)
Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado, Mark Swift
“Ray Gunn” (Netflix)
Brad Bird, John Lasseter, Lisa Beroud, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg
“Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom” (GKids)
Steve Cox, Matthew Walker, Richard Beek
“Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
Andrew Stanton, Lindsey Collins, Jessica Choi
“Wildwood” (Laika) ***
Travis Knight, Sam Wilson -
Production Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrick Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Roger Bellés, Judit Ferrer
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Ruth De Jong, Larry Dias, Gene Serdena
“Untitled David Fincher/Cliff Booth Movie” (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Craig Lathrop, Anna Pinnock -
Cinematography
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
Emmanuel Lubezki
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Linus Sandgren
“Fatherland” (Mubi)
Łukasz Żal
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Greig Fraser
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Jarin Blaschke -
Costume Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacqueline West
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Ana López Cobos
“I Love Boosters” (Neon)
Shirley Kurata
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
Marci Rodgers
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Linda Muir -
Film Editing
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Joe Walker
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Alberto Gutiérrez
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
John Ottman, Harry Yoon, Conrad Buff IV, Tom Cross
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Joel Negron
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen -
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“Tenzing” (Apple Original Films) -
Sound
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Mosquito Bowl” (Netflix)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios) -
Visual Effects
“Avengers: Doomsday” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Godzilla Minus Zero” (Toho)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures) -
Original Score
“The Debut” (A24)
Emile Mosseri
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Hans Zimmer
“Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
Randy Newman
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Carter Burwell
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Dario Marianelli -
Original Song
TBA song from “By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures)
TBA song from “The Debut” (A24) ***
“A Parallel World” from “Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)
“How to Write a Song Without You” from “Power Ballad” (Lionsgate)
“I Knew It, I Knew You” from “Toy Story 5” (Pixar) -
Documentary Feature
“American Doctor” (Watermelon Pictures)
Poh Si Teng
“The History of Concrete” (Magnolia Pictures)
John Wilson
“Musk” (Bleecker Street) ***
Alex Gibney
“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon)
David Greaves, Liani Greaves, William Greaves
“One in a Million” (PBS Documentary Films)
Itab Azzam and Jack MacInnes -
International Feature
“1949” from Germany (Mubi)
Dir. Paweł Pawlikowski
“All of a Sudden” from Japan (Neon)
Dir. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
“Bitter Christmas” from Spain (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Dir. Pedro Almodóvar
“Coward” from Belgium (U.S. Distributor TBD)
Dir. Lukas Dhont
“Parallel Tales” from France (Front Row Filmed Entertainment)
Dir. Asghar Farhadi